本文摘要：Renowned American investor Jim Rogers has attracted global attention with his prediction that gold prices will fall to $900 an ounce. His words carry weight not just because of his years in the industry, but because two years ago the retired hedge fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, correctly said that gold – then hitting peak prices – would drop to $1,200 an ounce. 知名的美国投资者吉姆罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有关黄金价格将跌到至每盎司900美元的预测更有了全世界的注意力。

Renowned American investor Jim Rogers has attracted global attention with his prediction that gold prices will fall to $900 an ounce. His words carry weight not just because of his years in the industry, but because two years ago the retired hedge fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, correctly said that gold – then hitting peak prices – would drop to $1,200 an ounce. 知名的美国投资者吉姆罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有关黄金价格将跌到至每盎司900美元的预测更有了全世界的注意力。他的讲话具备市场影响力某种程度是由于他很深的行业历练，还因为两年前这名卸任的对冲基金经理（他曾与乔治索罗斯(George Soros)联合创办量子基金(Quantum Fund)）顺利地预测到了当时上涨至峰值的黄金价格将跌到至每盎司1200美元。

Gold, he repeatedly warns, is not a mystical commodity and its real bottom will not be reached until those investors who think it cannot fall have all left the market. 他大大地警告称之为，黄金并不是一种谜样的商品，只有当那些指出黄金价格会暴跌的投资者全部解散市场以后，金价才有可能确实触底。Mr Rogers is on a mission to convince the investment world to look seriously at agriculture. He explains to Elaine Moore why he thinks it will be a source of profit for years to come. 罗杰斯力图劝说投资界严肃实地考察农业领域。

他向伊莱恩摩尔(Elaine Moore)说明了自己为何指出农业在未来几年将沦为众多投资收益来源。Why do you think gold prices are going to keep falling? 问：你为何指出黄金价格将持续暴跌？ Gold has gone up 12 years in a row, which is terribly unusual for any asset, so it would be an anomaly if there was not a correction. 问：黄金价格早已持续下跌了12年，这对任何一种资产来说都是极为少见的，因此市场若不经常出现一次消息传递的话将不会十分异常。I am terrible at market timing but I expect gold to go down 50 per cent from its peak, which would take it to about $900. I’m not selling gold at the moment but if it falls or if it gets down there, then I hope I will be smart enough to buy more. 我并不擅于找准市场时点，但我预计黄金价格相对于其峰值将暴跌50%，也就是说跌到至约每盎司900美元的水平。现阶段我并没售出黄金，但如果黄金价格暴跌或者跌到至上述水平，那我期望自己到时需要充足明智地出售更加多黄金。

Why does gold attract so much attention? 问：为什么黄金不会引起如此反感的注目？ I can’t tell you why, but I always have the same experience. When I speak at investment events there is always someone asking about gold. I’d rather talk about agriculture. 问：我无法告诉他你原因确有，但我回应具有切身感受。当我在投资界的活动上讲话时，总会有人问道黄金。而我更加不愿谈谈农业。

What do you want to say about agriculture? 问：关于农业你想要谈些什么？ I think there is more money to be made in agriculture. I don’t think we’ve had the final bottom in gold but we must be nearing it in sugar. Sugar is down 75 per cent from its all-time high – there’s not much in the world that’s down 75 per cent. 问：我指出农业领域极具利润前景。我指出黄金价格还没跌到至终极低点，但蔗糖价格早已相似底部。

蔗糖价格相对于其历史最低水平早已暴跌了75%——世界上很少有什么资产的价格跌幅超过了75%。I think that farming is going to become one of the most exciting professions in the next 20 years. The average age of a farmer in the US is 58, in Korea it’s 65. It is an old profession and the people in it are dying out or retiring. In the US, more people study public relations than agriculture. 我指出，农业将沦为未来20年中最激动人心的职业发展领域之一。

目前美国农民的平均年龄为58岁，韩国则为65岁。农业是一个老龄化的行业，从业者要么邻近卸任，要么凋亡病死。

在美国，自学公共关系的人比自学农业的人更加多。The world is facing a serious demographic and production problem. If something doesn’t change then we won’t have food at any price. Prices will have to go up a lot to attract labour and the Food and Agriculture Organisation has tried to get people to see this crisis. They see what I see. What more do you need to know? 目前全球面对着不利的人口结构及粮食生产问题。如果不作出转变，那么无论缴纳怎样的高价，我们也买粮食。

粮食价格必需大幅度下跌才能更有到展开生产所需的劳动力，联合国粮农组织(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)为使人们认识到这场危机作出了希望。他们早已看见了我所看见的问题。

你还必须再行告诉些什么呢？ People blame it on speculators but it isn’t about them – it’s about the fact that inventories are now at the lowest they’ve been in recorded history and even though we have had good crops in the past decade, production cannot keep up with demand. In the past if we had problems with the weather, then we had huge inventories. But now we don’t have inventories and we don’t have farmers. 人们把粮食涨价的责任归咎于农产品投机者，但问题并不是由他们导致的——问题的根源在于，农产品储备量现跌到至历史低点，虽然近十年来我们的粮食农作物不俗，但生产量跟上市场需求的快速增长。过去如果我们遇上了天气问题，我们尚且有大规模的粮食储备应急。

而现在我们既缺少粮食储备，又缺乏种粮的农民。Why isn’t there more interest in this sector? 问：为什么对农业感兴趣的人不多？ We’ve had long cycles where the financial sector was in charge, followed by times when the people who make things were in charge. We’re at a midpoint now. 问：我们经历了金融行业占到主导地位的长周期，随后又经历了制造业人士引导潮流的时期。现在我们正处于一个中间点。

When I was at college [Mr Rogers was born in 1942] people used to talk about the City and Wall Street as backwaters. Now the kids at Oxford all want to start hedge funds. But the fundamentals have changed so much. There is so much competition in finance and banking in the rest of the world, we have gigantic leverage in the industry and now every government is coming down hard against financial types. I think finance is going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20, 30 years. 当我还在大学读书的时候（罗杰斯出生于1942年），人们习惯于将伦敦金融城以及华尔街称作死水一样的领先地方。现如今，牛津大学(Oxford University)的学生们都想正式成立对冲基金。

但这个行业的基本状况早已再次发生了相当大变化。世界其他地区的金融与银行业竞争十分白热化，行业内的杠杆水平很高，并且现在每个国家的政府都在不严管束金融业人士。我指出在未来的10年、20年甚至30年中，金融都将是一个差劲的职业方向。

You set up the RICI [Rogers International Commodity Index] in the late 1990s, how are you investing in agriculture? 问：你在二十世纪九十年代晚期创办了罗杰斯国际商品指数(Rogers International Commodity Index)，你在农业领域是如何展开投资的呢？ I mainly buy agricultural products – farms. I buy publicly traded farms in Australia and Indonesia and Africa. But you can invest in tractors and fertilisers and seeds – there are lots of ways into this. 问：我主要出售的是农产品——还有农场。我在澳大利亚、印度尼西亚以及非洲并购公开发表交易的农场。

你也可以投资于拖拉机、肥料以及种子——有很多投资农业领域的途径。What else are you currently investing in? 问：目前你还投资于其他哪些领域？ Well, apart from agriculture I’m looking at the US dollar because there will be more currency turmoil in the future and I think a lot of people are going to flee to the US dollar as a haven. The Chinese currency will also continue to be strong, and sugar, which I’ve mentioned. I’m also buying shares in airlines and I’m looking at Russia, which I’ve been pessimistic about since 1966, but which I’m now changing my views on. 问：除了农业以外，我还注目美元走势，因为未来汇率市场还将经常出现更好的动荡不安，而我指出将有很多人大规模购入美元作为挂钩资产。人民币汇率也将之后走强，还有我之前提过的蔗糖。

此外我还出售航空公司的股票，并注目俄罗斯局势，自从1966年以来我对该国仍然所持乐观态度，但我正在调整自己的这一观点。What are your views on passive investment? 问：你对被动投资模式怎么看？ There are plenty of studies that show that index investing outperforms 80 per cent of active managers, so passive investing is the best way for most investors. If you are a good stock picker then, sure, do that, but the evidence is so strong that basically most people should use passive investments. 问：大量研究表明，指数化投资的收益低于80%的主动型投资经理。

因此被动投资对于绝大多数投资者而言是最佳自由选择。如果你擅于挑选出股票，那么你当然可以这么做到，但涉及研究证据极具说服力地指出，基本上，大多数人都不应使用被动投资。

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